YOU WANT SUBPLOTS? THESE PLAYOFFS HAVE THEM! - Flavio Tranquillo

All right, this is it. Playoff time, the best time of the year. Four great matchups, with a caveat: the losers don't have to automatically be looked upon as failures. A place in the top eight teams in the continent is no small feat. I also tend to think that you don't often reverse at the end of the season what you did - and did not do - throughout a whole year of basketball. This being said, let's talk a little bit about the quarterfinals.

TAU CERAMICA-OLYMPIACOS

Obviously my last reference will be put under a tough test here. If Arvydas Macijauskas comes back, and all the indications are he will, this whole series might change its complexion. The drama will revolve around him, as he knows very well the Spanish club that he propelled to the final game in 2005. Nobody can predict what his impact will be, but my theory is the first game you play coming back from a long injury is relatively easier, since your desire to play can kind of compensate in the short term for the absence of "basketball shape". After that, though, you almost invariably experience difficulties and go through a slump. I think Tau played the best offensive basketball of the Euroleague season, together with Panathinaikos, and I'm talking about the quality of what they did, not about how many points they scored. Baskonia has leadership with Pablo Prigioni and Luis Scola, a big man who is more likely stopped by his own foul trouble more than by opponents. The team went through adversities without losing too many games, so the logical pick is to install them as favorites in a pregame analysis. Still, Olympiacos has the talent to make this a wonderful series, as at least two or three players, not counting the wild card Macijauskas, can dramatically alter the outcome of a game. This showdown might really be a dandy.

CSKA MOSCOW-MACCABI

Ehi, didn't I see these two teams somewhere else in the past? Obviously things are different from last year, as Maccabi lost a Parker and a Gershon, and CSKA brings into this series the maturity of a champion who did not show any sign of complacency the following season. Game 1 should be the pivotal one, as Maccabi has little pressure to cope with after a tough season so far. Everyone expects CSKA to prevail, but the Israeli champs on paper definitely have the talent to give the defending champs some fits. I'm particuarly intrigued by the duel between Matjaz Smodis and Nikola Vujcic. These two big men might not guard each other a lot but they have in common a great deal of versatility, and many of the things coaches Ettore Messina and Neven Spahija do offensively revolve around the abilities of those big men as shooters (especially Matjaz) and passers (especially Nikola). I'd be suprised to see Maccabi winning if games are played in the 60- or 70-point range, as CSKA clearly looks like the better team in a halfcourt game. Playing a higher number of possessions though is related to defense, and this is the real question mark for the yellow-and-blue. Can they play enough defense, not their specialty so far, to force the champs into a game they don't particularly like? If the answer is yes, don't take this series for granted.

PANATHINAIKOS-DYNAMO MOSCOW

It looks like every series has a great subplot. Macijauskas coming back vs. his old team, the two finalists in 2006 being back at it and Zelimir Obradovic playing against his "basketball father" Dusan Ivkovic for a place in those Final Fours that these two coaches know oh-so-well (and have both won while working in Athens). I think Obradovic has a tremendous amount of respect for his opponent, who has won at the club and national team level as well as he did. But this series is not going to be played to the tune of Aretha Franklin ("Respect") or Cat Stevens ("Father and Son"). This is going to be a battle between two teams built differently, between the versatility and quickness of the Greens and the more classic approach of their Russian counterparts, between spacing and power. You want more subplots? How about Lazaros Papadopoulos playing Panathinaikos, the team he helped win the whole thing in 2002 with a memorable second half in Bologna? How about Antonis Fotsis, the key in beating Benetton in the game that got Dynamo here, who also was a champ with the Greens in 2000? This should come down to Dynamo being able to keep Papadopulos in the game without forcing him to chase the versatile Mike Batiste & Co. seven or eight meters away from the basket. I'm sure Obradovic and Ivkovic are working on this, but for a change, they can't call each other for suggestions.

UNICAJA-BARCELONA

You don't need a genius to see the subplot here. Spain will be fulfilled no matter what because one of these teams will reach the Final Four. I'm sure head coaches Sergio Scariolo and Dusko Ivanovic, neither of whom is Spanish, have their own motivations, however. Also take into consideration that Marcus Brown will be back for Unicaja in a very Macijauskas-like situation. His leadership was sorely missed by Scariolo and the guys throughout the season, let's see if he can contribute right away. Usually European playoffs with teams from the same country have a special flavor, and this should be no exception. Both teams went through pretty complicated times during the season, both fought hard to establish an identity, and winning this series will really be a relief for the victorious one. How much of a factor will the recent Copa del Rey victory by Barcelona in Malaga be? Hard to say, but it's obviously something you have to start from. That game was probably decided at the very beginning, when Barcelona opened the court with a small lineup, creating room for Juan Carlos Navarro and Jaka Lakovic to operate. The blaugrana went on a 12-0 opening run, and pretty much never looked back, with Jordi Trias playing a big role after Fran Vazquez went down with an injury. The memory will definitely be vivid for Scariolo, who will have to mix and match in order to exploit the power Daniel Santiago is able to provide without suffering too much in terms of defensive quickness, very much like the Papadopoulous-Panathinaikos situation.

So, are you ready to follow the playoffs with … Devotion? Please don't forget it's a game, even if it's a great one. Let's have some fun and best wishes to everybody !

POSTED BY

Flavio Tranquillo - Italy