BETTER TO LOSE ONCE?

May 24, 2012

Flavio Tranquillo

Is Panathinaikos ever going to lose a game? I think it's a legit question after they beat Union Olimpija despite shooting a horrible 23 percent from three-point distance. They won the game by 9 because they connected on two-pointers at a spectacular 79% clip. To me, this shows that Panathinaikos does not depend that much on long distance efficiency, which is obviously something you cannot take for granted. And way too many teams nowadays rely on those bombs going in way too much...

Flavio Tranquillo - SKY Italy Media Blog

Flavio Tranquillo - SKY Italy Media Blog

So, we go back to the first question. These guys can win with scores in the 70s or in the 90s, can win at home and on the road, can win, period. What's more, they added Milos Vujanic to the mix, an incredible luxury. I have some qualms about Vujanic being able to carry the whole load of a team, even if a Fortitudo team he quarterbacked went all the way to the Final in 2004. But if he can be a "change-of-pace" kind of guard (he’s not necessarily confined to the point) and does not have to be THE guy, well, he may be awfully helpful, especially after the team lost Spanoulis and Lakovic since last year.

OK, for the second time, back to the original question. Are they gonna lose one sooner or later? Of course I don’t know, but history says that being the prohibitive favorite and getting to the final round without one defeat or two is dangerous. Think about CSKA in 2005: they were virtually unbeaten (lost only a not very significant game to Barcelona) entering the semifinal, were playing at home, everybody thought that ,well, no way are they gonna lose that very game and …. poof ! Does that mean history always repeats itself ? Not at all. That Panathinaikos should lose a couple games on purpose? God forbid, it would be unethical and absurd, because if you tell or show your players you want to lose a game (it doesn’t matter how meaningful) you’re done forever, you will get no respect anymore. Also, this season is very long, and many things will happen from now to May (much to our delight, I can’t wait for the Top 16 to get started). So, there is no practical way to do something about it. But it still is my belief that to get to the top you almost invariably need to go through a crisis, or at least a critical juncture in your season (like CSKA starting 0-2 and losing David Andersen last year). And I’m pretty sure this issue is in the back of Panathinaikos coach Zeljko Obradovic’s mind, also because that CSKA team was coached by Dusan Ivkovic, and the two of them might have talked a couple times about that...

At the same time, the other contenders are quietly rooting for the Greens to keep on winning, because the pressure card is always an important one to put on the table come Final Four time. Don’t you remember the relaxed smile Ettore Messina sported at the Prague pre-semifinals press conference last year? Just like saying: "We are here just to enjoy the games, it’s not a must-win for us..." Well, remember who lifted the trophy...

I mentioned Fortitudo reaching the final game in 2004. In the new millennium this team was always a factor, regularly feared by opponents for its home-court advantage and drive to succeed. Fast forward to Thursday's game, and the scenario is pretty different. Dynamo Moscow was the fourth team after Olympiacos, RheinEnergie and Prokom to win in Bologna, almost sealing Climamio's elimination. It happens, and this season was pretty much doomed from the start for the "Fossa dei Leoni"-backed team. It's 99% certain that the Euroleague will lose at the end of the regular season the colorful Fortitudo fans, the intimate atmosphere of Land Rover Arena and the possibility of watching Marco Belinelli. It’s bad news for a lot of NBA scouts, who rely on Euroleague games a lot to evaluate a prospect. And boy, are we talking prospect here! His first half vs. Dynamo was half-human, half-amazing. He prompted my color commentator, Franco Casalini, to compare him to Larry Bird the way he performed a couple of "step-back" moves. He scored at least four technically impossible baskets with an effortless ease that is clearly the stuff legends are made of. Still...

Still, his second half was not at the same level, and this is something frequently seen in the past. Still, his defensive game is way behind his offensive one (and that might be the understatement of the century). Still, he wastes a lot of mental and physical energy while doing things on the court that are not exactly of primary importance. Lots of "buts" as you can see. I tell you what, I would not like to be that NBA scout. "Beli" might very well be a top three player in the draft and a perennial all-star. But he might also be a very promising player who will never translate his immense potential into full reality. It’s up to him to try to attain that potential, but it’s also too early to have a final say, because the kid is 20 years old, and even Magic Johnson had his highs and lows at that age. Fate, luck and other little things will factor in. It’s just that his god-given talent is enormous, and this is as much a gift as a heavy load to carry at his age. My humble advice: take your time. Rome was not built in a day. Remain true to the game, try to add something every day, don’t rush. And remember that the truly great, great players are the ones doing easy things 95% of the time, even if they are able to succeed in doing the difficult ones, they try to do so only when it's the only means necessary.

POSTED BY

Flavio Tranquilo

DATE:

Friday, January 05, 2007