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 When the going gets tough, the tough get going. It's mid-season in the Top 16, and the race for the Quarterfinal Playoffs is more exciting by the minute. Of course, teams at 0-3 look now like their seasons are done, while the unbeaten ones seem to be already advanced. Don't forget, however, the reversal of fortune Cibona and Panathinaikos had last year, when the Greens came back from an 0-3 start to make the Playoffs and the Croatian sensations were unable to capitalize on a shocking 3-0 start. This year Panathinaikos started the Top 16 a little bit better, and I was especially impressed by the win against FC Barcelona in Week 2. As for Week 3, the score that pops out immediately is the 85-64 dismantling of Olympiacos at home courtesy of defending champions CSKA. Yes, we all happen to think these two teams - Panathinaikos and CSKA - could or maybe even should play in OAKA on May 6, but it's definitely too early to jump to conclusions. It's the most educated guess now, but there is a reason why they play the games, and at least two or three other teams stand decent chances to beat these two powerhouses, especially if it comes down to a single game.
This does not diminish for a second the significance of what PAO and CSKA are doing. Last week, Panathinaikos's first half against Barcelona was as good an offensive show as you can witness on this continent. I have a play stuck in my mind: Mike Batiste gave up the ball like a water polo player from the low post, then three more laser passes over maybe 2 seconds found an open shooter in the opposite corner for a three-pointer. The stats in that game were amazing: Barcelona shot a whopping 77 % from two-point distance and still lost by 20! Pana took an unusual 29 threes (their season average is less than 20) and made 15, because those were quality shots, the natural byproduct of Barcelona's defensive strategy. I'd say Panathinaikos is doing what the incomparable Maccabi of the Jasikevicius-Parker-Vujcic era did to so many opponents. I see similarities in the way the two teams manage the shot clock, those 24 seconds that are so vital to every offense. Panathinaikos does not waste any precious time before attacking, which is not to say they shoot the ball every time they cross the mid-court line or mimic a Paul Westhead team. If you are familiar with American football, but there was a thing called “West Coast Offense” which had decent success for the San Francisco 49ers and was imitated by many teams (without ever reaching the same level of excellence). It was predicated on designing every offensive play to score a touchdown, even knowing that to do so every time was impossible. Indeed, the effect apparently became the opposite, moving the ball methodically before erupting for a big play here and there. It might be a little counterintuitive, but it makes perfect sense. To achieve success you have to put the maximum pressure on defenses as soon as possible, threatening to go all the way every time, even if you perfectly know that you'll be able to do that only once in a while. The pressure gets defenses back on their heels, forces them to commit, enables you to make reads and, finally, to take what they give you, or better, what they are forced to give you. It's the old "pick your poison" approach and it's exactly what the Greens are doing.
As soon as they get in the offensive halfcourt, the Greens put the ball in scoring position after a very quick preparation, usually with a pick-and-roll or going down low. That is not the end of the offense, but the beginning of the other's team nightmare. The defense has to react, because when Diamantidis turns the corner on a pick-and-roll or Batiste gets two feet in the paint in a one-on-one situation, you are done. So, they have to shift defensive attention to the ball, something that Barcelona did a whole lot. That creates an advantage that good offenses crave, but again, this is just a starting point. Remember that Panathinaikos started the process very soon. This will allow them to exploit the defensive reaction and to move the ball to relatively freer areas of the court, where versatile players who can shoot the three as well as putting the ball on the floor are waiting like vultures. Spacing will do the rest, forcing the defense to cover a lot of ground to recover and giving the offense more advantage with every dribble penetration and/or extra pass. There will be plays when the ball is shot quickly, there will be others when it's reversed as many as three times: In theory, it's up to what the defense does. Mind you, with no Joe Montana-Jerry Rice there would have been no West Coast Offense. It's the same with Diamantidis & Co. at Panathinaikos. Personnel is always the key, as great coaches are first to admit. But still the concept is interesting, and another thing that the 49ers and PAO have in common is, well, rhythm. It's hard to describe what I mean by that, but a trained eye can almost immediately detect when the offense is in a good flow, when the ball is moved harmonically from one pair of hands to the the next, when good shots are taken immediately and when average shots are passed up to create something better.
Which brings us to the other side of the moon, CSKA. Playing on the road in the same Athens - was it an omen, of sorts? - the defending champs fulfilled Ettore Messina's dream: A game in which your offense is in great rhythm - 69 points in the first three quarters, 16 assists, 13-for-20 on three-pointers (is it something in the water?) - and at the same time, the other team's offense has its rhythm reduced to almost zero - 25 points in the first half, 5 assists, 31,5 % on threes. The offensive part is not always accomplished by CSKA; otherwise, you literally couldn't touch them, because they manage their defensive 24-second clock as well as Panathinaikos does with its offensive one. You put together ball pressure (J.R. Holden is the master here), overplay, physical impact, versatility (Savrasenko and Van den Spiegel routinely switch the pick-and-roll, Vanterpool can guard almost anybody) and mentality. The result is a defense that breaks opponents down. CSKA is first in the Euroleague for fewest points allowed, field-goal percentage allowed and points allowed per opponents' possession, and it doesn't stop at stats. The character they showed against Olympiacos was remarkable, controlling the game from the tipoff with the usual balance (nobody attempted more than 10 field goals). Oscar Torres (what an acquisition!) has improved their athleticism immensely, and the standing ovation his ex-fans gave to Theo "Genius" Papaloukas is the best commentary on his performance. CSKA's show was a thing of beauty, just like that of Panathinaikos against Barcelona.
Barcelona and Olympiacos shouldn't feel offended: they just played great teams in top shape. Those two challengers are equipped to play any opponent, PAO and CSKA included. It's just that speaking as of right now, we have a couple of more advanced teams in terms of finding that elusive thing called chemistry. I also would like to remind you that Dusko Ivanovic had his Tau Ceramica playing an unbelievable brand of basketball between 2001 (when they lost in the fifth game of the finals to Kinder Bologna) and 2004, when they lost the final vs. Maccabi after a masterpiece win over CSKA in Moscow. I don't have to mention that that Maccabi team and its predecessor, Europe's only back-to-back champion in a generation, were coached by none other than Pini Gershon, now with Olympiacos. They know very well, as do Messina and Obradovic, how seasons can go good or bad because of very little things and details. But you have to give Messina and Obradovic credit for the wonderful coaching jobs they are doing. I went to the archive and retrieved footage of the 1992 playoff series between Knorr Bologna and Partizan Belgrade, coached by the same two guys - when they looked a little younger, of course. It might as well have been 1892 by how much different things are now. It's a difference like night and day: then, the 30-second clock was used to implement a web of screens for shooters as the main option (legendary coach Aza Nikolic's hand was very visible in both systems). The offenses were very structured, the emphasis on spacing was limited, the big guys were players like Stevanovic and Binelli with very limited range, Bill Wennington (a very good face-up shooter) took 250 shots from two-point distance and mere 2 three-pointers in an entire Italian League season. Well, in 15 years the basketball world has changed a lot. Messina and Obradovic met again as 2002 finalists (yes, it looks like their roads cross every 10 years) and what is clear is that they have changed with the times, much to the delight of those who watch with … Devotion. Next stop, OAKA? It's what we all think, but don't tell them yet. They know that it's way too early still.
POSTED BY
FLAVIO TRANQUILLO - ITALY
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