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Prediction: basketball itself wins
The road to the Final Four has been very logical for three of the four teams that made it to Athens. All of the three regular season champions - Panathinaikos, Tau Ceramica and CSKA Moscow - made it to the Final Four and took the right way there. Unicaja had a more up-and-down season but took advantage of playing in the most balanced Top 16 group. Unicaja took advantage of its chances, particulary when it came to tie-break situations, and that helped them to get the homecourt advantage in the playoffs and advance to the Final Four. It was a bit of a surprise compared to what happened to Winterthur FC Barcelona and Maccabi Elite Tel Aviv, teams that were supposed to be two of the top candidates for this last Final Four spot. At the same time, the countries represented in this year's Final Four are pretty logical, too. It more or less represents the situation of European basketball right now. Two Spanish teams, a Greek and a Russian. It clearly shows the status of European basketball right now. No Italian teams or players are here, which shows its basketball in a bit of a crisis. Some people did not go past the regular season and the rest of them fell in the Top 16, with Benetton being the only team with playoff chances in the final date of this stage. As for Italian coaches, however, we have Ettore Messina and Sergio Scariolo here, showing the power of this country when it comes to this issue. These two coaches represent the Italian basketball style very well.
Looking back at the season, two players surprised me despite being already consolidated Euroleague stars. They both play for CSKA Moscow. Trajan Langdon was already a well-known, high-quality player but I was surprised to see his attitude on court. I followed him a lot this season and I realized he is a coach's dream. Apart from being really talented, he has all the values that you can learn in sports such as the will to do things right, patience, commitment or a spirit of sacrifice. I think he has the complete package. Another players who really stepped up this season is Matjaz Smodis. Not only does he keep being an excellent shooter, opening the court for everyone and being a modern power forward, but also is dangerous around the basket. Moreover, he is more active around the basket than shooting from outside, and that is a great improvement for him and for his team.
Let's talk about the first semifinal. I think Unicaja is fully aware of its situation. It comes to Athens with the expectations already beaten, with a lot to win and due to its circunstances regarding injuries, it is not the favourite in this game. Its options comes with the fact that is has nothing to lose, and that could give the team a boost to face the game against CSKA. It needs CSKA to have a bad day, too, which is something improbable. Tactically speaking, Scariolo will try everything he can, will come up with a fully detailed game plan, but Unicaja faces a team that has a lot of factors that need to be stopped. I think Unicaja has a tough task. CSKA needs to play its brand of basketball, the way it played throughout the season. There is no need for them to prepare anything specific against Unicaja. CSKA needs to set the game rhythm, based on avery intense defense, complementing its high-quality players on offense, as well as being loyal to its style all 40 minutes long. That will be CSKA's main weapon to win. CSKA looks for its opponent to lose control at some point during the game and always manages to do so.
In my opinion, the second semifinal is way more balanced and more difficult to predict. Obviously, Panathinaikos has the homecourt advantage but we cannot forget that, with similar rosters, Tau beat the Greens in a playoff game in OAKA last season. Panathinaikos may have a little advantage, but it is not big. On the other hand, Tau has its own advantage, too, as its players are great competitors. They know how to play well in important games and of course they will be willing to show it. Panathinaikos has a deeper bench, more options, but they have to demonstrat that. They also have great balance between the backcourt and frontcourt. Some of their players can really play in different spots, and they know how to get out of any tough situation. Speaking from a fan point of view, if someone wants to enjoy the game, he must have a look at the way both teams play the pick-and-roll situation on the top of the key. Both teams are the best in Europe, I think, in this situation. Panathinaikos uses Mike Batiste and any of its guards. It is a direct screen, very tough, perfectly executed, with Batiste rolling off the pick really well and with the remaining three players ready to take the outside shot. Then Tau uses Luis Scola and Pablo Prigioni and it is a more creative and intuitive pick-and-roll. You know how they start it, but you never know how or when it will finish. Both players get a lot of advantage in this situation. Fans all over the world must be happy to see these teams facing each other in the semifinal.
I have been asked to make a prediction, so here I go: I believe CSKA will beat Unicaja, and I have more doubts when it comes to the second semifinal. I would say that Panathinaikos may be the favourite because of the hom court advantage. Then in the final, I think that if Panathinaikos makes to the final, and even considering that CSKA is a better team, the Greens can become the champion once again because of the homecourt advantage.
POSTED BY
Joan Creus - Barcelona, Spain
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