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Did you miss me? I'm back to pick the Final Four
I wish I could say that due to the outpouring of reader's complaints pertaining to a lack of blogs by me, the Euroleague website has begged me to give final four predictions. But I can't, thanks people, geesh, nobody wrote, nobody sent flowers, nobody was worried about poor old me once the Euroleague season ended for Roanne. But I’m back anyway and ready to give you my predictions for the Final Four in Madrid.
Disclaimer: I have not played against any of the teams in the Final Four this year.
Game 1: Montepaschi Siena vs. Maccabi Elite
Siena cruised through the playoff against Fenerbahce. In the Top 16, they went 4-2, but the two losses were at Partizan by 3 points and at Panathainkos by 1 point. Those are arguable the two toughest atmospheres in Europe. Right now they have a lot of time to actually focus on the Final Four because domestically they locked up the first position. A lot of people do not realize what a burden it can be to have to prepare for two entirely different leagues at the same time. They have five guys who average double figures, a tough team to guard, but more importantly, less chance of one or two guys having a bad game and hurting them. Maccabi is Maccabi and once again they have a tough team. But they have had to fight this year in the Israeli League and have not been as invincible as usual. They are similar to Siena, basically six guys in double figures, with Will Bynum at 9.9. It took three games against Barcelona to get to the Final Four, but beating Barcelona is no small feat. Since Siena has won so convincingly all year and when they lose it almost seems like a fluke, I am going to say…………………… Montepaschi 85 - Maccabi 78
Game 2: Tau Ceramica vs. CSKA Moscow
Seems hauntingly close to this summer, Spanish National team vs. Russian National team in Madrid…. We all know what happened. Ok, true, these are club teams and the rosters are different, but you have to see the connection. Seems to me that the same J.R. Holden plays for both teams and hit a pretty big shot in Madrid. I also would like to note that fellow blogger Tomas Van der Spiegel seemed to conveniently slip back onto a Final Four team… Kudos to you. Not one player for CSKA plays more than 30 minutes a game. Coach Messina has a deep roster and he uses it. They had a slight hiccup against Olympiacos in the first game, but like Siena, this is a team that has to have a lot of things go wrong to lose. They hold a 2-0 advantage this year against Tau, but they are not going to go out without a fight. Just like CSKA, Tau uses a lot of players every game, but honestly I don't know who is going to play big minutes next game. They have shuffled players in and out all year for whatever reason, injury, disciplinary reasons, releasing, etc. It is amazing though that in just 22 minutes of play, Tiago Splitter has a ranking of 16.7. I just think the continuity of CSKA is going to be an advantage. As a player, when the minutes vary dramatically, or players switch, it is sometimes hard to get great chemistry. Even though it is tough to beat a team three times in one season, I am going to say CSKA, they won it in 2006, lost in the finals last year and have most of the same guys from those teams…………… CSKA 78 Tau 72
Third Place Game:
Maccabi vs. Tau. I could say Tau has the advantage because the game is in Spain and should at least be able to use the fans to get up for the dreaded consolation game… But Maccabi fans travel well. These people love their team and when the game was in Prague, I heard they chartered 40 planes. I was at the game and really started believing it was a home game for them; with a sea of yellow dominating the arena. Yes, but the game is not played by the fans. I am wasting time procrastinating my next pick. I think Tau will regroup and get the win………… ………………… Tau 84 - Maccabi 75
Maccabi fans, do not hate me, you are great and your team got to the Final Four. They have won back-to-back titles very recently, don't be mad!!!
Final:
CSKA vs. Montepaschi. Siena has been on cruise control all year long, they have won a lot of games. I really would like them to win because Romain Sato is a good guy. CSKA holds a 2-0 advantage on Montepaschi this season, like they did with Tau. It is hard to beat a team three times in one season, but if they did it once, they can do it again. This team has done it before and with the same core players, this team is battle tested and they have even added talent, like Marcus Goree and Ramunas Siskauskis, and a few others who may not play as much, but would be starters everywhere else. I think either team could win, but I am going to pick CSKA… Final score: CSKA 87 - Montepaschi 81
Again, if Siena can keep most of their guys, I see them as the favorite next year.
Ok people. That is it for me. Thanks for reading my blog and good luck to all the Final Four teams. Hope to see you next season!
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