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Three favorites and a surprise
Overall, there are two huge surprises after the Top 16. Everybody counted on Real Madrid making the Final Four, or at least the playoffs, so them not going is a huge surprise for me. They started so well that no one had any doubt they were going to advance, but then came one bad game, a few bad decisions at the end against Maccabi, and that put them in a tough situation. They suddenly faced a crucial away game at Olympiacos and couldn't resist the Reds and their fans in that situation. The other shocker, of course, was the dethroning of Panathinaikos. It's hard to believe the champs aren't advancing to the last eight clubs. They tried to make more of a quality team than they had last year, and maybe it backfired on them. I don't know if there were too many stars on the same team or not, but I didn't see the chemistry and togetherness they played with all last season. Of course, you have to be very happy for Partizan. I personally cheer and root for them because they're a group of young guys with no big names except for Palacio, who was a good player in America, but not a top star, either. They put together a very competitive team, and I think that all Serbian basketball can be proud of this team. I call it a Serbian team, too, because in that sixth Top 16 game against Panathinaikos, that atmosphere on the court was electric. That's what European basketball stands for, in my mind. It was a spectacular atmosphere in a crucial game with superstars like Vlade Divac and famous coaches in the stands, but most of all because of those, 7,000 or 8,000 crazy fans standing the whole game and giving their energy to the team. It's no exxageration to say those fans gave their team 10 or 15 points. They were phenomenal. I also feel happy for Turkish basketball. I think the Turks have been working and longing for a good success like this at a club level in Europe for the last few seasons. For Fenerbahce to achieve it now under Coach Tanjevic is a real boost for that country.
Tau Ceramica - Partizan
Partizan is riding a big wave of enthusiasm after knocking off Panathinaikos. The question now is how those young guys will handle the sudden fame after putting out the goliath of the competition. That, for me, is the big question, because it's not easy to handle kicking out the champion from competition. Partizan has just done that, and now has to play Tau, an established European power that has perfomred on a good level all season, with almost no ups or downs. Coach Spahija is doing a very good job, and the team seems to be healthy and improving. Both are strong home teams. Vitoria is traditionally one of the toughest places to play. And with Partizan, everyone saw what their fans can do for them. So both teams have the advantage on their court, which gives Tau the edge going in based on its two home games and what we have to say is a lot more experience. Tau has Rakocevic, Planinic and Prigioni outside, Splitter and Teletovic inside, and is an efficient scoring team either way. Their major plus is bench depth and the steadiness of their performance all year. I saw them several times and it was the same, even game each time. When someone was out, someone else stepped up to fill his place. They get consistency of play from the whole team. Partizan's leadership and experience has to come from Milt Palacio, who I think was unbelievable in the last round. He really carried them, but of course earlier in the season it was Nikola Pekovic, a rising superstar of European basketball. His physical skills are unbelievable and he hasn't scratched the surface of what can be a very exciting career to watch. For him as a young player, the question now is more mental than physical as to how he'll handle the situation. He and Partizan have knocked out Panathinaikos. Now they have a chance to play in the Final Four.
Maccabi Elite Tel Aviv - AXA F.C. Barcelona
Both of these teams went for coaching changes in the middle of the season. Starting with Maccabi, I think they had a disappointing start to the season. I was surprised at the size of the turnaround Zvika Sherf was able to make for them. From the moment he arrived, he gave responsibility and challenged individual guys on the team to step it up. Perhaps the system under Oded Kattash was too complex and maybe the players didn't know their roles well. I think Zvika just challenged them to play better individual defense and offense, to be responsible for covering their own men and not rely on others. And offensively, he simplified things and guys responded. He has also shortened up the rotation. They had 10 guys play on any night before, and sometimes the truth is that there are only 200 minutes to go around. Zvika tightened up the rotation and put more weight on seven or eight good quality players who responded by playing well. Terrence Morris is having a very good season and Nikola Vujcic is back. Maybe his mobility is not 100 percent, but again he is much more dominant as a presence than his stats indicate, the way he draws double teams, finds the right man, hits open shots and passes to cutters. A high-post passer is basic to the Maccabi offense, and he's the best. For Maccabi, the homecourt advantage was crucial. Nokia is a tough arena to play in. On the other side, Barca is a traditional superpower that I don't think is so dominant as before. For them, it was an accomplishment to make the last eight teams, competing as they did against another Spanish team, Unicja, which made the Final Four last year at Barcelona's expense. That made it special to get through the Top 16 this time and Barcelona can now play a little free of pressure. Again, I have to go with the favorite and choose Maccabi. I have seen so much progress in their play, and toughness.
CSKA Moscow - Olympiacos Piraeus
For me, CSKA has established themselves as the European superpower right now. I don't think they had as dominant a regular season and Top 16 as we were used to seeing the last two seasons. But now they are coming more together with Smodis working his way back into the rotation. I saw the game when he came back from his injury and he was out of rhythm, but in the last three weeks, I am sure he worked hard and Coach Messina did the same to get him working in the rotation. He's crucial for them. CSKA has a group of guys who've been playing together a long time, and with Van den Spiegel coming back, they have some shot blocking again. I think they miss Savrasenko. He gave them toughness around the basket, taking hits for the team at any point in the game. His statistics didn't play a big role, but he was not a marginal player. The truth is the opposite. He was important for his leadership, and kind of reminded me of Bill Cartwright with the old Chicago Bulls teams. That physical demeanor is important for a team. But that's all that CSKA's missing, maybe. It will be important to see how Smodis is. He has the experience and if he's in good shape, I clearly favor CSKA, in this series or in any group or game, as long as they are alive.
Olympiacos had the change in the coach's position, similar to Maccabi's and Barca's, that I think ended up helping the club. Panagiotis Giannakis gave a new impulse to the team and they were able to knock out one of the favorites of the competition, Real Madrid. I don't know how they'll respond to the big guy, Marc Jackson, departing the team so soon before the playoffs. I don't know the reasons. I do know that when he was on the court, Olympiacos adjusted its game a lot to focus on getting him the ball in good position inside. They spread the court and worked the ball to him, and he frequently did a good job. Without him, this team has a different look and it will be interesting to see how they react. They just gave a real good game to Panathinaikos in the final of the Greek Cup, which is another good sign for Olympiacos. I think that CSKA will have a tough game at Olympiacos and the fans there who appreciate their team making the playoffs.
Montepaschi Siena - Fenerbahce Ulker
If I have to pick a surprise, I'd have to go with Fenerbahce. They have absolutely nothing to lose and I like the experience of Coach Tanjevic on the bench. Will Solomon gives their team a lot of excitement and energy. In his career in Europe, he has put a lot of pressure on the ball as a defender. That, to me, is where team defense starts, with point guard pressure. Offensively, of course, he's one of the most exciting one-on-one players, so I think the team gets a lot of energy from him in general. This is a team that comes together, believes in each other and doesn't give up. Like I said, I think they could surprise Montepaschi, but at the same time, the Italian team has been solid all season. They are absolutely dominant in the Italian League and you have to respect the way they've handled themselves so far. I think that Montepaschi wins by absolutely controlling the game tempo and by not making mistakes, both of which are key marks of successful basketball clubs. This is a very efficient, low-turnover team and they won't give much away. But I think that there are always three favorites who make the Final Four and one underdog, and this could be the time of Fenerbahce.
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