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Fearless forecast with a friend in mind
I'm a little disappointed not to be seeing a Final Four as a player, because we would have liked to take a shot at making it. We understand that we did a good job for a good part of the season, but the facts are that our campaign ended in the Top 16 and that wasn't where we were aiming for or feel we should have been. We had injuries of course, but it's still disappointing because every player wants to be part of a Final Four, so I'll just content myself with trying to analyze the series a bit and risk some predictions for you.
In the first semifinal, Montepaschi against Maccabi, looking at the way the season has unfolded and the form of each team lately, I have to go with Siena. They've shown a nice style of basketball, honestly, and they seem very deep, with all options covered. As good as Maccabi's history is – and obviously I hesitate to write them off because of their great history of success at this time of the seasons – my gut feeling is that Montepaschi is really on form so I have to take them. I saw them only sparingly this season, but the times I did, they really impressed me a lot. They knew how to handle themselves, and their results speak for themselves. What they have managed to accomplish convinces me that they will have a good shot at winning, but nobody can count out Maccabi, of course.
In the second semifinal, CSKA Moscow against Tau Ceramica, for me it's a sure pick. I definitely think that CSKA will win that one. Especially in the big-man department, I like CSKA. The guards may even themselves out, because they are great on both teams. For me, though, the big guys of CSKA – David Andersen, Matjaz Smodis and Marcus Goree – stand apart. They force all sorts of different matchups on any opponent that make them very difficult to stop. I think that's where the game will be won.
If I am right, and it's Montepaschi and CSKA in the final, I think that it will be a great game to watch. One of the reasons I choose them is that, as a fan, I would love to see that game. I also feel it would be hard to pick one or the other, but I would have to go with CSKA based on their experience and big-time play. Their guys have done it at really clutch moments before, so I would pick CSKA just to edge out Siena for the title.
Of course, I am a little biased, but if I had to pick an MVP candidate, for sure there's one guy for me: David Andersen. I have a feeling he's going to be the man for the team I pick to win it all, CSKA, even though there are quite a few guys on that team with lots of experience. I've been egging him on lately to step up and get that done, and he's definitely on that level of MVP candidate. As my teammate on the Australian national team, of course, I hope it happens for him this weekend in Madrid and I wish him luck getting through.
POSTED BY
Matt Nielsen - Vilnius
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