A super Saturday highlights group stage

May 24, 2012

Robertas Javtokas - Lithuania (Photo: FIBA)

More than halfway through the group stage of the Olympic men's basketball tournament, it's possible to make some sense of where this competition might be headed. That is not to say, however, that no room is left for surprises. More than a couple teams have yet to play their best basketball, and if they do, upsets are still possible. There is also the possibility of jockeying for position, resting key players and other tactical considerations unique to the Olympics. Only three teams - Lithuania, Spain and the United States - go undefeated into the fourth games on Saturday and only two - Iran and Angola - have yet to win. In between them, seven others - Argentina, Croatia, Russia, Australia, Greece, China and Germany - have either one or two victories. They are all playing for mathematical survival still. For them, there is no thinking beyond Saturday. Two of those seven will not reach the quarterfinals, and even for those with the most advantageous schedules left, a single slip now could end their Olympics prematurely.

Lithuania has, perhaps unexpectedly, seized the top spot in Group A by going undefeated at 3-0. Its success so far might be read from the fact that the Lithuanians have the second-highest scoring average among all 12 teams, but no individual scorer among the best 14. They do, however, have two of the top seven rebounders, with Robertas Javtokas of Dynamo Moscow grabbing more boards per minute than any player in the tournament. Those rebounds are a great sign because once it can establish defense, on the day that its shots are falling, Lithuania can stay with any team in the tournament. Argentina and Croatia come next in the group standings, at 2-1, with the defending Olympic gold-medal team from South America holding the edge now due to its solid victory between them. Croatia could conceivably advance without another victory, but needs to recoup its confidence quickly. The next key game in the group is Russia vs. Australia on Saturday. As both have 1-2 records, and have only beaten winless Iran so far, the game could decide which of them reaches the quarterfinals. That game's winner would immediately become dangerous for having survived without playing its best basketball yet.

In Group B, all eyes on Saturday will be on the deciding game for first place between two undefeated teams, Spain and the United States. Spain needed overtime against China to preserve its perfect record, while the U.S. has won all its games easily. Team USA avenged its semifinals loss in the last World Championships when it trounced Greece on Thursday. A game-changing first-half run against such a strong opponent proved that the U.S. is keeping its focus. A victory over Spain would make the high-flying Americans a clear gold-medal favorite. Spain's chances will depend on protecting the ball from a U.S. defense that averages almost double the amount of steals. Spain would do well to take some risks in this game to see what might work in an eventual medal-round meeting with the Americans. Meanwhile, China and Germany will meet in a game with plenty implications for their survival, as both have 1-2 records, tied with Greece. Both China and Germany would consider a first-time ever trip to the quarterfinals a success, so expect that game to be the pivotal one left in this group.

POSTED BY

Vassilis Skountis, Beijin

DATE:

Friday, August 15, 2008