What quarterfinalists need to work on

February 10, 2012

Marko Tomas and Marko Popovic (photo: FIBA.com)

With one more game to go before the quarterfinals, but all quarterfinalists already known, the shape of the Olympic men's basketball tournament is already quite clear. The pleasant surprise so far has no doubt been Croatia, a quarterfinalists after missing the previous two Olympics. The other side of that surprise is that reigning European champion Russia is not going to the elimination rounds. Just like Serbia and Montenegro at the 2004 Olympics in Athens, Russia has been squeezed out unexpectedly by the intensified global competitiveness in basketball. With more teams than any other continent, it's logical that Europe has higher chances of losing one before the quarterfinals. In Athens, one of five European teams missed the quarters, and now in Beijing, it's two of six, Russia and Germany. That China knocked out the Serbs in 2004 and the Germans this summer, while Australia surprised Russia, is more evidence of how good basketball has become globally. Every continent except Africa is represented among the quarterfinalists for just the second time in Olympics basketball history. the Since the last group-stage games on Monday will decide the third and fourth places in each group, no team knows his opponent yet for the quarterfinals. The top teams will be using Monday's games to sharpen tactics before the do-or-die quarters, so here's a take on what each quarterfinalist needs to improve in order to survive going forward.

Group A

Lithuania: Protect the ball. Lithuania's turnover rate is decent, but without having played a ball-hawking defense yet, the question remains an open one. If it can keep turnovers low despite higher pressure, Lithuania will be in every game it plays due to its veteran guard corps of Sarunas Jasikevicius, Rimantas Kaukenas and Ramunas Siskauskas and the young bucks in the paint. If big man Ksistof Lavrinovic can hit more long shots from the corners, Lithuania will give opponents even more trouble.

Argentina: Stay aggressive without fouling. No team depends on so few players as Argentina. Its first six players have scored all but 32 points in the four games so far. They also average more than 24 minutes each. Only China, with five players playing so much, comes close. The ability to rest without a meaningful game until Wednesday was made to order for Argentina. Now, with all-around solid offense, Argentina's challenge is defensive, specifically be aggressive without getting into foul trouble that would put responsibility on an untested bench.

Australia: Rebound on defense. With fewer defensive rebounds than any team except Angola, the Aussies are often working double time on defense. A good defense should be rewarded with a rebound and possession, not wasted by letting the other team get the ball back. Australian has big men with size enough to get their share of boards, and with help on long rebounds from their guards, improvement in this category will be essential to their hopes.

Croatia: Consider shot selection. Croatia has the tournament's highest three-point percentage but the fewest shots, by far, attempted from downtown. Meanwhile, only Spain attempts more two-pointers with a lower percentage. With the second-most offensive rebounds of any team, maybe Croatia needs to think about shooting more threes and going for any rebounds with the help of its big guards. As one of the best free-throw shooting teams, most offensive rebounds will be automatic points for Croatia, making this team even more dangerous going forward.

Group B

United States: Know the opponents. About the only thing that can derail Team USA now is a cold-shooting night against a hot-shooting opponent who protects the ball well, thus diminishing the fastbreak game of the Americans. Knowing the other team's shooters will help prevent the U.S. from getting surprised by a hot hand or two and falling behind. Also, zone defenses have led the U.S. to shoot more three-pointers than expected. Going inside more will lessen the chances of a bad outside shooting night leading to trouble.

Spain: Practice patience. Spain has the worst three-point percentage in the entire tournament and second-worst two-point percentage among quarterfinalists. Patience is a likely solution. Considering that Spain has five good outside shooters and several inside threats, moving the ball better has to help the situation. Such an experienced team should be able to regain make sure of extra passes, even at the risk of making one too many. Often, a 24-second violation is better than a quick turnover that the other team runs off and dunks.

China: Don't force passes. Taking out games played against the USA, which forces many turnovers, China gives the ball up more than any other quarterfinalist. Often, the guards are trying to find big man Yao Ming at all costs - and the price is a pass to the other team now and again. The risk has been worth the reward as Yao led the team into the quarterfinals, but with a few less gifts to other teams, China can be more dangerous considering its strong defense and high shooting percentages so far.

Greece: Find go-to guys. Greece's great collective game has worked wonders for years, but when the team gets stuck on offense, as during its big losses to Spain and the U.S., a quick solution has not been found. Vassilis Spanoulis has stepped up most often, but teams are now focused completely on him, so other options are needed. In the paint, Giannis Bouroussis is showing signs of responsibility, but against the best teams, another player will need to make himself a threat to assure points to break scoreless spells quickly.

POSTED BY

Vassilis Skountis, Beijing

DATE:

Sunday, August 17, 2008