On the level before the start of the Top 16
For a unique perspective on the most exciting months of the season, Euroleague.net brings you a new blogger, Flavio Tranquillo, a ranking expert on world basketball at its finest. Flavio has long been known as the voice of basketball in his native Italy- and for good reason. But in addition to communicating his expertise as an announcer, Flavio has the background of a coach, the curiosity of a journalist, and most importantly, the devotion of a basketball lover!
Don't you feel something in the air? No, that is not good ol' John Paul Young telling us about love. No, we're talking Top 16 here! The best basketball in Europe, six games to win or go home, with every minute of every game counting! I might be a little obsessed with the beauty of basketball, but if it gets any better than this, please let me know. In the meantime, I'll be watching Euroleague as much as I can, and telling everyone in sight that doing so is worthy.
It's always bad when you try to put teams (that is, human beings forming those teams) into categories. Nonetheless, you have to try to figure out what will happen in the near future. I mean, you should read the following preview and then discard it immediately as an aberration. And maybe continue by betting against the following indications…
LEVEL 1 (The sure things)
Regal FC Barcelona: don't think you need anything but the standings to support the notion. Even if Valencia beat the "azulgrana" at the buzzer last Saturday in the Spanish League, I haven't seen such good basketball in the last seven or eight years. Ricky Rubio is the most exciting player on the planet, and if you miss a chance to witness his game, you might miss something like this. It does not mean at all Barcelona will win the whole thing going away. But don't think, either, that they will leave before next stage.
Panathinaikos: yes, they were beaten twice by Real Madrid and did not win the group. Yes they have some injuries. But at the same time, you don't doubt that Coach Obradovic and his players know when you have to lace 'em up a little tighter, don't you? The Greens sport the best pick-and-roll in the league, accounting for 25% of their offense: you have to stop that to stop them, and it's a tough feat.
LEVEL 2 (The should-be sures)
Real Madrid: they might not have the "real" superstar and they might be not overly athletic. But this team, from the coach on down, is built to play harder when the going gets tough. Very experienced, which is not a kind way to say they are a little old. Look for Sergio Llull to be a factor, his fresh legs are so often a difference-maker.
Montepaschi Siena: another fixture at the top in recent seasons. Yes, they were dismantled twice by Barcelona, but the mental toughness McIntyre and Stonerook rub off on their teammates builds a high degree of confidence in this team. Coach Pianigiani will be waiting for those tests that the Italian League is unable to provide (39-1 last season, 15-0 in 2009-10, so far!!!). A proven system (playing the passing lanes on defense and moving the ball through the pick-and-roll) separates Siena from so many opponents.
Olympiacos: they might very well be the deepest team in Euroleague. As it was last year, it's just a matter of clicking at the right time, to find that consistency that divides talented teams from proven winners. We saw flashes up until now. The Top 16 will tell us more about the true colors of the Reds. I'm a big believer in the theory that players coming from the NBA achieve their Euroleague success in the second season, and it might very well apply to a Mr. Childress.
CSKA: did you remember these guys ? Yes, they won a little bit in recent years… Of course, Ettore Messina and Matjaz Smodis are out of the picture, and that is no small difference. But the team remains very, very deep and big (I like Sasha Kaun a lot). You don't win seven in a row just by accident. And you sure don't think players like Langdon, Siskauskas and Holden will be happy just showing up, do you?
LEVEL 3 (The eternal contenders)
Maccabi: losing 3 of the last 4 does not give them too much of a roll going into the next round. But this team has a lot of firepower and can score in the 90s on any given night. Plus, winning in Tel Aviv remains a tough job. If they can at least split the first two games against the powerhouses (Montepaschi and Real Madrid) look for the Israelis to be a factor until the end of the Top 16.
Unicaja: when you beat Olympiacos by 18 and you win your first 5 games of the regular season, there must be something good you are doing. What remains to be seen is if the recent slump can be forgotten by the addition of two newcomers like Juan Dixon (a master at playing without the ball) and Zabian Dowdell, who might turn some heads like he did in Italy last season.
Caja Laboral: so few things in life are a 100% sure. Among them are death, taxes, and a Dusko Ivanovic team getting better with a little seasoning. This particular team is no exception, as they climbed the standings after a slow start. Teletovic and his guys can shoot the lights out (42% on 230 threes; only Siena converted the long ball at a better clip). You count these guys out at your own risk.
Khimki: another very dangerous group, hungry and deep. The Scariolo boys are on a mission to gain respect and prove that they belong to the European elite. Look for Timofey Mozgov, an explosive athlete with a great upside, to be kind of a wild card, while the Spanish connection Cabezas-Lopez provides stability.
LEVEL 4 (The party crashers)
Can the remaining six teams pull a little bit of an upset and advance to the playoffs? Not impossible at all. Partizan, Efes and Cibona have tradition on their side, and might be more dangerous now that expectations are a little lower. Prokom, Zalgiris and Maroussi will have the quiet strength that stems from the awareness that their goal for the season has already been met. Just a couple of examples of how such teams can indeed crash the party. It took 2 missed free throws by Ibrahim Jaaber and a miracle buzzer-beater by Trajan Langdon for eventual champion CSKA to beat Lottomatica in the first Top 16 game in 2008. And last year Armani Jeans had a legitimate chance to eliminate Olympiacos in Athens after having beat the Reds in Milan. Back in 2002, Union Olimpija did eliminate Olympiacos with an overtime road win in the fifth game of the Top 16 despite having nothing to win (or lose). Without that unexpected victory by Olimpija, Panathinaikos would have missed the Final Four - and not become champ that year.
POSTED BY
FLAVIO TRANQUILLO - ITALY
DATE:
Wednesday, January 27, 2010