Guessing games going into Week 5

May 25, 2012

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Well, there are so many things to talk about after the fourth episode of the Top 16 saga … First and foremost, let's celebrate the Game and its being as good as it is unpredictable. And this Game can be very unpredictable. Panathinaikos being eliminated with two games to be played and Prokom virtually advancing already...is that unpredictable enough? If not, try these...

Regal Barcelona shocking the world by putting together an 18-3 run in OAKA, of all places, to dethrone Panathinaikos.
Real Madrid looking so down for three quarters, risking elimination, coming all the way back, apparently allowing Siena to save the point differential between them with 5 seconds to go, and then going crazy for Sergio Lull pulling a 3+1 that definitely brought some good memories to coach Messina.
Olympiacos having the game apparently won in Zagreb, then allowing Cibona back in it, and then re-winning it down the stretch.
Caja Laboral, after being dismantled by Real Madrid in the national cup, winning against Khimki in Moscow with its back to the wall and also getting even in the oh-so-important point differential department.
Partizan and Maroussi battling each other to the very last possession of what became, after Panathinaikos lost in Athens, a vital game for playoff purposes.

I think the picture is (un)clear enough...

Blues for the Greens

Why is Panathinaikos the only 0-4 team along with Cibona in the Top 16 and out of the competition this early ? Everybody is obviously asking this question. The only sure thing is that there is no single answer. You can point to two defeats - vs. Partizan and vs. Maroussi - to open the discussion. Those losses put the (not anymore) defending champions on the ropes, because losing two in a row to Regal FC Barcelona, right now, is no surprise. Obviously, Sarunas Jasikevicius not being a factor in the Top 16 had a lot to do with the losses. But I also think a big key in this was the ability of opponents to at least contain Nikola Pekovic, the driving force behind PAO's stretch run last season. Especially meaningful was the first game, when his former team Partizan kept the center from Montenegro to 7 points, and the fourth quarter of last week's game, when Pekovic was not the powerful factor he had been until then.

When Pekovic is on his game, i.e. supplies his monstrous production per minute (seventh-best in the Euroleague until now), he balances out the pick-and-roll offense with catches underneath (both rolling and posting up). Especially the rolling part poses big problems for defenses, since it's very hard on a screen-roll to stop the ball, cover his rim-runs and mind the perimeter, where lethal shooters wait, spaced to take advantage of whatever the defense does to stop Pekovic's cuts. But when Pekovic battles fouls or is ineffective - the former being more common than the latter - the Greens' offense becomes a little one-sided, since he accounts for 60% of the post-up action and is scoring on 85% (!!!) of his rolls to the basket. That was very clear in the closing minutes last Thursday. Regal Barcelona, down 4 points, had three successful possessions with an alley-oop dunk by Vazquez, a Lorbek catch down low and a classic "bomba" runner by Navarro. In the same stretch, Panathinaikos took 3 well-contested three-pointers, missing ‘em all, with Pekovic fouling out in the process. Panathinaikos was 5-for-17 from downtown, but I think it would be too simplistic to just say that they had a bad shooting night. If you take away Diamantidis and Fotsis (12 for 21) the rest of the team is shooting 9 for 47 from three-point distance in the Top 16, so there must be something else than some shooting blues to explain such numbers.

Having said this, a couple more considerations. First: I think Panathinaikos will definitely shake things up a little bit next season. But they will be careful not to throw the baby out with the bath water. The excellence they showed in these years must not be forgotten: it's just that some seasons are born good, other ones go bad. Second: other than maybe Olympiacos, with due respect to the highly qualified rest of the field, I don't see anybody now beating Regal Barcelona. The level of confidence Barcelona is playing with was clear by the way they came back in OAKA. When you are down by 4 points, the game is on the line and you throw an alley-oop pass and convert, that is not showboating. Rather, it is the perfect play in that situation, and it tells you about confidence. And confidence comes from the awareness of being so good. The other big question nowadays is: "Has Barcelona already sealed the deal?" I think not at all, previous considerations notwithstanding. Yes, they are a juggernaut right now and look unstoppable. But at the same time you have to go through playoffs and then survive two KO games in three days to become champ. I would call the process..How can I say?....Unpredictable!

Remember the Reds

Speaking of Olympiacos, a couple of possessions down the stretch in Zagreb illustrated their forward progress as well. Particularly impressive to me is the emergence of Milos Teodosic. The way he's playing now (22 points in the Greek Cup Final, 22 with five triples vs. Cibona) reminds me a little bit of Dragan Kicanovic, with his style and poise. I can't remember Kicanovic well enough to go deep into the comparison, but what I remember from back then is his ability to shoot the pull-up J, the way he was taking over under pressure and the game face, which translated as: "Who, me worry?". I think Teodosic must get better on defense, especially in terms of containing one-on-one, but he does things well that cannot be taught, and that is pretty important.

Execution down the stretch is another forte of this team, with Papaloukas and Vujcic having developed an ESP-type connection. I think the best offense is the one that just does simple things, that reads what the defense is giving and takes it. And that is exactly what Olympiacos does repeatedly through the amazing passing abilities of these two veterans. Proof is the key play in Zagreb, with Papaloukas perfectly reading and splitting the defense, his drive drawing help and him calmly dishing it to Kleiza cutting baseline for the winning dunk. Interesting strategy: up 2 after this play with 6.5 seconds to go Coach Giannakis elected to foul deliberately. That paid big dividends, as Jamont Gordon missed the first free throw. Always remember, these guys make tons of decisions before things unfold. We judge those ones after, knowing the end result. It's not exactly the same ….

Speaking of Jamont Gordon, the MVP of week 4 was a beast for Cibona. I had many chances to watch him playing last season, when he had a tough time in Bologna with his Fortitudo team (with Qyntel Woods and Stefano Mancinelli among others ) going down to Legadue after a nightmarish season. Still, the potential was clearly there. I don't know if Gordon is a 1, a 2 or a 3, but I do know he is a basketball player, which is way more relevant to this game. And his upside is tremendous, as he can only get better.

F is for Four-Way

If you can tell us what is going to happen in Group F, please do. The only thing we know after eight close games is that the first team or teams to win big and/or win on the road will advance. But chances are that this is not going to happen and the whole thing will go down to the wire. Efes Pilsen and Montepasch definitely had a chance to become those teams last week, but were unable to knock out Maccabi and Real Madrid in games that were permeated with big-time pressure. Real Madrid was frankly awful for three quarters vs. Siena, looking out of synch and out of shooting touch. Think that when Llull made his second triple (the one giving his team the first lead of the second half) he was 2-for-3 then and his temmates a combined 1-for-13. We already talked about Llull: I consider him a champion and the most important piece in a deep roster that is not always easy to sort for Coach Messina. But very important in winning the do-or-die game in Madrid was the play of big guys in the fourth quarter. The combination of Felipe Reyes's punch and Ante Tomic's finesse was tough for Siena to cope with, especially with Ksistof Lavrinovic not being his real self, Stonerook being nagged by injuries and Eze being a little overwhelmed. Looks like a curse, since Lavrinovic was physically far from 100 % in the 2009 Panathinaikos series, too.

Going back to Real Madrid, think about a coach who wins such an important game by sitting Kaukenas, Velickovic, Garbajosa, Jaric and Bullock (a more-than-decent starting five …) down the stretch. Now, that is pressure and that is decision-making. I am not a big fan of plethorical rosters, but you have to admit in this particular case all those options worked in Messina's favour. At the same time Pianigiani, with a slightly shorter rotation, was stuck with the bad night of his three key guys: Stonerook (1 point), McIntyre (3-for-12 on threes) and the aforementioned Lavrinovic. Very curious to see what Siena will do now with Henry Domercant, who scored 12 of the 16 team points in the fourth quarter and singlehandedly almost kept the team afloat. Domercant knows the Euroleague inside and out, will play his former Efes Pilsen team in the last game and might be a precious resource for his coach in these last two games. But still, you don't want to mess up the rotation when nothing is lost (everybody has a chance in this group). So, while Domercant definitely will be ridden a little bit more, expect Montepaschi to remember how they got here, with Terrell McIntyre (very frustrated in Madrid) leading the way.

POSTED BY

FLAVIO TRANQUILLO - ITALY

DATE:

Monday, March 01, 2010