The Playoffs so far: almost heaven
For a unique perspective on the most exciting months of the season, Euroleague.net brings you media blogger Flavio Tranquillo, a ranking expert on world basketball at its finest. Flavio has long been known as the voice of basketball in his native Italy- and for good reason. But in addition to communicating his expertise as an announcer, Flavio has the background of a coach, the curiosity of a journalist, and most importantly, the devotion of a basketball lover!
I really think that the difference between going to heaven and the playoffs is that to enjoy the latter you don't have to go through what you must with the former … It's too good to be true: hard-nosed basketball, emotions and devotion, constantly changing strategy; just the best. It's really what I think, not the company line. And the fact that after three games there are no reservations for Paris is a big plus, as well.
A series that was definitely meant to contain some drama was Barcelona-Real Madrid. All the implications - the "clasico" ingredient, Messina vs. Pascual after last season's semifinal, the history between the teams in Spain - were already enough to guarantee a series for the ages. Then Real Madrid scared Barcelona in Game 1 and won on the road in Game 2, thus virtually getting the series started. In Game 3, Barcelona rebounded, and one possible way to read the whole thing is that the blaugrana felt some pressure in the first two episodes of this saga. The most basic indicator to prove this theory right is three-point shooting. Barcelona shot 11 for 48 from long range in the frirst two games. Game 1 was decided by a 2-for-3 three-point performance by Pete Mickeal, who took only 17 more threes in the rest of the season (one attempt every 27 minutes, in fact!). I don't find another way, this side of pressure, to explain these two aberrations, that were proved such by Barcelona's 10-for-20 accuracy from the arc in Game 3. Indeed, Barcelona shot over 36% from downtown in the regular season and Top 16.
That is not to say at all that Real Madrid's defense wasn't a factor in those numbers, but I would suggest that the biggest factor was the merengues' offense. I mean, the best way for Real Madrid to try to beat Barcelona is to control the tempo of the game. If Navarro & Co. can run, they will get confidence by scoring easy baskets. If they get confidence, their percentages will rise, the game will be more wide open and Real Madrid will have less chances. This, to me, tramslates into two specific things. First, Real Madrid must play with a tremendous amount of mental discipline to be successful. Second, Messina's players must use the low post as a means to control the tempo, by taking away Barcelona's transition game. This is done by keeping guys in position to get back, but it's usually easier said than done. Before Game 2, Ante Tomic was a 7.3-point-per-game player, a piece of the puzzle. That he was able to score 45 points in the last two games is a monument to the coaching job Real Madrid staff made with him, and to their versatility, the most important character to make a difference in the playoffs. So, this is going to be about tempo and pressure. As far as the tempo goes, look for the number of possessions telling you which way this series is going. The following possessions' table is and indication..
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REAL MADRID
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REGAL FC BARCELONA
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71.5
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GAME 1
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79.5
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79.0
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GAME 2
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73.5
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68.5
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GAME 3
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80.0
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The table shows that when Barcelona has more possessions, there is almost no way they will lose a game, reason enough for Real Madrid to control this key stat. As far as pressure goes, I would say this: I like Barcelona's chances in Game 4, thinking they are the better team and they already went through a mini-crisis (losing Game 2). But if Real Madrid holds serve in Game 4, then it gets really, really interesting…
Among the four teams that are one win away from Paris, Partizan is the most amazing story. They eliminated Panathinaikos in the Top 16, then took a 2-1 lead in these playoffs by winning Game 1 in Tel Aviv and Game 3 in Belgrade. These two mere facts would be enough to make the season unforgettable, to say the least. But the best part of the story is that this not happening by accident. It takes work and ability to do this, and it's exactly what the club has put into this thing. Game 4 will be what you called a big event. Basketball is a religion in Belgrade and Tel Aviv, and the history these two teams bring to the parquet every time they take the floor is really an important part of this rivalry. Watch out for a Gershon-coached team in a an elimination game in front of 20-something-thousand fans. Pini will definitely play the us-against-the-world card, instilling a bunker mentality in his players. Also, after three very physical games, this is gonna depend on energy. As many as 11 Partizan players have played significant minutes in the series, proof of the platoon system Dule Vujosevic uses with great effectiveness. The shorter Maccabi rotation definitely does not prevent them from having a lot of chances in the series, but it still might be a factor. Everything counts here!
The other two series, with Olympiacos and CSKA holding serve for two games each at home, looked over before Game 3. My hat goes off to Prokom and Caja Laboral for coming back with their respective backs to the wall in Game 3 against great teams in the enviable position of playing with the safety net of a 2-0 advantage. The CSKA team that I saw in Games 1 and 2 can beat everybody at any stage. The way they executed their offense, the smoothness of their passing, the energy provided by players like Sasha Kaun and Andrey Vorontseveich, both of whome were able to give a lot in a limited amount of minutes...all this coalesced into a great team effort. As impressive as this effort was, Caja Laboral has the tools to win two games in a row, especially now that it has the best Tiago Splitter back in action. Let's see if the 53 points CSKA scored in Game 3, after pouring in 86 and 83 in Moscow, were an aberration, as well as its 35% shooting from the field after having shot 52% at home. Prokom keeps on turning heads after qualifying for the playoffs for the first time in their history. They were two points down in the last minute of Game 1, when a devilish steal by Milos Teodosic negated an attempted game-tying layup by David Logan. And they won Game 3 by finally controlling Linas Kleiza, who scored 52 points equally distributed in the first two games, just 9 on 4-for-12 shooting in Game 3. Keep an eye on former Olympiacos forward Qyntel Woods and his inordinate amount of talent. He's the kind of player you don't want to play in a Game 5 when he has nothing to lose, if you see what I mean...
POSTED BY
FLAVIO TRANQUILLO - ITALY
DATE:
Wednesday, March 31, 2010