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Joan Creus looks ahead to the Quarterfinal Playoffs
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TOP 16 WEEK 6 ANALYSIS
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Following a professional career that spanned 24 seasons, Joan Creus is now first assistant coach on the world champion Spanish national team and a television analyst of Euroleague games in Spain. To complete his analysis of the Top 16 on Euroleague.net, he now looks ahead to the Quarterfinal Playoffs.
"At the end of the Top 16, let's say that in general there have not been any great surprises. In my opinion, the best eight teams have advanced. Benetton was the other one that came closest to making it, but the eight that are going to the playoffs are the best in my book. Unicaja was maybe the only slight surprise because it was not seeded among the best eight teams before the Top 16, but you've got to remember that they were in Group B of the regular season, which many considered the killer group, with a very high level. Among these eight teams, there is also a geographical distribution - three from Spain, two from Russia, two from Greece and once again Maccabi from Israel - that accurately reflects the distribution of great basketball around Europe."
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TAU CERAMICA VS. OLYMPIACOS
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"This will be interesting. These teams played each other this season and each won at home by clear margins. That points to an influence of homecourt advantage, which Tau has in this series. At the same time, however, Olympiacos has Pini Gershon, and we have to remember that last year his Maccabi team played Tau at the Final Four and won easily due to his game plan. Gershon surprised Tau by cutting the connection between Pablo Prigioni and Luis Scola in that game. This year, Tau has an extra master to play with, Zoran Planinic, who makes this a tougher team to stop. And of course, Gershon has a different team. The key of this series could be the play of the inside guys: Scola, Tiago Splitter, Kaya Peker and Mirza Teletovic of Tau; Giannis Bourousis, Andrija Zizic and Sofoklis Schortsianitis of Olympiacos. Whoever wins those duels will surely win the series, I think, but I see this series going the full three games. Olympiacos will be strong on their court, Tau on theirs and both have great desire to be there at the Final Four. I think they will go to a third game."
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CSKA MOSCOW VS. MACCABI ELITE
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"Of maybe all the series, this one would seem to have more of a clear favorite, and that of course is CSKA. They have homecourt advantage, first, but this team has also shown itself to be on top form right now, at the best time of the year to be playing your best. They might have started the season strong, but they came out of the Top 16 much, much stronger, as their last game on the road against Partizan in Belgrade has proven. Plus the fact that they have lost only one Euroleague game all season. Also, not many people would dispute that Maccabi is not at its best moment on the court. Maccabi had its troubles all season against lesser teams than CSKA that have since been eliminated. It shouldn't surprise anybody if this series finishes in two games, but it must be said that playing against Maccabi at Nokia Arena in Tel Aviv is always difficult. I think that the key for Maccabi's hopes will be Nikola Vujcic and Lior Eliyahu, who have important roles going in, to produce at the same time that they have deal with guys like Matjaz Smodis and David Andersen. What they do for Maccabi will be most important."
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PANATHINAIKOS VS. DYNAMO MOSCOW
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"Another interesting one. For Panathinaikos, to play two games on its home court now, knowing that the Final Four will also be played there is enough motivation that it should lift them in this series. I also think they are the favorites on the court. That's because they have players who know how to play in these types of pressure situations. They are experts in such situations. For Dynamo, it will be very difficult to pull off a victory in OAKA arena, but another factory in this series could be the mental one of Dynamo's two most important players being Greeks. And not only are they Greeks, but both Lazaros Papadopoulos and Antonis Fotsis have played and won titles with Panathinaikos. How those two arrive to Athens to play against their old team will be crucial for Dynamo. It's something of a double-edged sword. Sometimes those situations - playing in your home country against your old team - come out really well, sometimes not. Dynamo has one advantage - nothing to lose - but like I said, the pressure doesn't bother these Panathinaikos guys. They are not scared of big challenges."
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UNICAJA VS. WINTERTHUR FC BARCELONA
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"This is the most equal series of them all at the outset, because both of these teams know each other so well. They have played in the Spanish League and in the Spanish Cup this year, but most of all these teams have a history against each other. Barcelona right now is playing as well as it has all year. It no longer depends so much on what Juan Carlos Navarro does. Instead, Barcelona has developed a team game of the highest level. The inside-outside balance is working really well, as are the connections between the inside players themselves, and the bench is coming in with quality minutes, as in the example lately of Roger Grimau. They are waiting also for Mario Kasun to come back from injury, which could be important, because he's their only player who plays with his back to the basket. That means he would help with Unicaja's biggest weapon going in, Daniel Santiago. He will have a big role in this series, because if he can impose his game or if Barcelona can stop him will influence the result of the entire series, in my opinion. It could go either way."
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