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The Game is calling

Wed, 02 May 2007 07:26:40 GMT

Boys, it's about time. I'm getting increasingly restless; I can't wait for the big show to get started. The memories of Prague are still fresh in the minds of those who love the game, capital "G" please. The Game will be the only sure winner in Athens. The Game is bigger, stronger and better than everybody else, and the team that will honor its spirit best will emerge as European champion. What are you asking for? The name of this team? Wow, now this is tough to say. So many angles to study, and the intriguing Final Four formula that leaves a lot of room for surprises and coups...

Generally speaking I would say Panathinaikos and CSKA should get 2-3 percentage points more than the other two teams if this was a best-of-five or best-of-seven playoff. But the beauty of this thing is that it's really up for grabs, and it's not a cliche. Tau played brilliant basketball all season long and it has in the past done something painful and necessary in order to to win a Final Four, i.e. to lose a Final Four (like CSKA did in the past before winning last year). Unicaja is in a very peculiar state of mind, and though I'm sure Sergio Scariolo would sell his soul to the devil for the privilege of getting Daniel Santiago back. I'm equally sure he'll have everybody else super-motivated and super-concentrated. These teams are battle-tested, experienced, deep and balanced.

Panathinaikos will definitely have homecourt advantage, but with that comes an immense pressure, and especially in the first game it will be hard to cope with. CSKA knows what this is all about. Messina, Langdon, Smodis, Holden and many others are Final Four veterans who thrive in big games, but being the defending champions they also will have an additional weight to shoulder. Mentally, I like Unicaja, offensively I like Tau, defensively I like CSKA, in terms of overall strength and balance I tend to favor Panathinaikos. So many reasons to pick any one of these four teams. I really can't decide. It's gonna come down to two or three key plays, to small things, details and preparation. The Game is as wonderful as it is cruel, especially on the big stage. You need maturity to enjoy it, and I'm sure this will be another weekend to remember, just like the one we experienced in Prague last year. Again, I can't wait to get started. The Game is calling... Enjoy the Final Four.

YOU WANT SUBPLOTS? THESE PLAYOFFS HAVE THEM!

Mon, 02 Apr 2007 10:34:34 GMT

All right, this is it. Playoff time, the best time of the year. Four great matchups, with a caveat: the losers don't have to automatically be looked upon as failures. A place in the top eight teams in the continent is no small feat. I also tend to think that you don't often reverse at the end of the season what you did - and did not do - throughout a whole year of basketball. This being said, let's talk a little bit about the quarterfinals.

TAU CERAMICA-OLYMPIACOS

Obviously my last reference will be put under a tough test here. If Arvydas Macijauskas comes back, and all the indications are he will, this whole series might change its complexion. The drama will revolve around him, as he knows very well the Spanish club that he propelled to the final game in 2005. Nobody can predict what his impact will be, but my theory is the first game you play coming back from a long injury is relatively easier, since your desire to play can kind of compensate in the short term for the absence of "basketball shape". After that, though, you almost invariably experience difficulties and go through a slump. I think Tau played the best offensive basketball of the Euroleague season, together with Panathinaikos, and I'm talking about the quality of what they did, not about how many points they scored. Baskonia has leadership with Pablo Prigioni and Luis Scola, a big man who is more likely stopped by his own foul trouble more than by opponents. The team went through adversities without losing too many games, so the logical pick is to install them as favorites in a pregame analysis. Still, Olympiacos has the talent to make this a wonderful series, as at least two or three players, not counting the wild card Macijauskas, can dramatically alter the outcome of a game. This showdown might really be a dandy.

CSKA MOSCOW-MACCABI

Ehi, didn't I see these two teams somewhere else in the past? Obviously things are different from last year, as Maccabi lost a Parker and a Gershon, and CSKA brings into this series the maturity of a champion who did not show any sign of complacency the following season. Game 1 should be the pivotal one, as Maccabi has little pressure to cope with after a tough season so far. Everyone expects CSKA to prevail, but the Israeli champs on paper definitely have the talent to give the defending champs some fits. I'm particuarly intrigued by the duel between Matjaz Smodis and Nikola Vujcic. These two big men might not guard each other a lot but they have in common a great deal of versatility, and many of the things coaches Ettore Messina and Neven Spahija do offensively revolve around the abilities of those big men as shooters (especially Matjaz) and passers (especially Nikola). I'd be suprised to see Maccabi winning if games are played in the 60- or 70-point range, as CSKA clearly looks like the better team in a halfcourt game. Playing a higher number of possessions though is related to defense, and this is the real question mark for the yellow-and-blue. Can they play enough defense, not their specialty so far, to force the champs into a game they don't particularly like? If the answer is yes, don't take this series for granted.

PANATHINAIKOS-DYNAMO MOSCOW

It looks like every series has a great subplot. Macijauskas coming back vs. his old team, the two finalists in 2006 being back at it and Zelimir Obradovic playing against his "basketball father" Dusan Ivkovic for a place in those Final Fours that these two coaches know oh-so-well (and have both won while working in Athens). I think Obradovic has a tremendous amount of respect for his opponent, who has won at...

A TALE OF TWO FAVORITES

Sun, 04 Mar 2007 12:09:30 GMT

When the going gets tough, the tough get going. It's mid-season in the Top 16, and the race for the Quarterfinal Playoffs is more exciting by the minute. Of course, teams at 0-3 look now like their seasons are done, while the unbeaten ones seem to be already advanced. Don't forget, however, the reversal of fortune Cibona and Panathinaikos had last year, when the Greens came back from an 0-3 start to make the Playoffs and the Croatian sensations were unable to capitalize on a shocking 3-0 start. This year Panathinaikos started the Top 16 a little bit better, and I was especially impressed by the win against FC Barcelona in Week 2. As for Week 3, the score that pops out immediately is the 85-64 dismantling of Olympiacos at home courtesy of defending champions CSKA. Yes, we all happen to think these two teams - Panathinaikos and CSKA - could or maybe even should play in OAKA on May 6, but it's definitely too early to jump to conclusions. It's the most educated guess now, but there is a reason why they play the games, and at least two or three other teams stand decent chances to beat these two powerhouses, especially if it comes down to a single game.

This does not diminish for a second the significance of what PAO and CSKA are doing. Last week, Panathinaikos's first half against Barcelona was as good an offensive show as you can witness on this continent. I have a play stuck in my mind: Mike Batiste gave up the ball like a water polo player from the low post, then three more laser passes over maybe 2 seconds found an open shooter in the opposite corner for a three-pointer. The stats in that game were amazing: Barcelona shot a whopping 77 % from two-point distance and still lost by 20! Pana took an unusual 29 threes (their season average is less than 20) and made 15, because those were quality shots, the natural byproduct of Barcelona's defensive strategy. I'd say Panathinaikos is doing what the incomparable Maccabi of the Jasikevicius-Parker-Vujcic era did to so many opponents. I see similarities in the way the two teams manage the shot clock, those 24 seconds that are so vital to every offense. Panathinaikos does not waste any precious time before attacking, which is not to say they shoot the ball every time they cross the mid-court line or mimic a Paul Westhead team. If you are familiar with American football, but there was a thing called “West Coast Offense” which had decent success for the San Francisco 49ers and was imitated by many teams (without ever reaching the same level of excellence). It was predicated on designing every offensive play to score a touchdown, even knowing that to do so every time was impossible. Indeed, the effect apparently became the opposite, moving the ball methodically before erupting for a big play here and there. It might be a little counterintuitive, but it makes perfect sense. To achieve success you have to put the maximum pressure on defenses as soon as possible, threatening to go all the way every time, even if you perfectly know that you'll be able to do that only once in a while. The pressure gets defenses back on their heels, forces them to commit, enables you to make reads and, finally, to take what they give you, or better, what they are forced to give you. It's the old "pick your poison" approach and it's exactly what the Greens are doing.

As soon as they get in the offensive halfcourt, the Greens put the ball in scoring position after a very quick preparation, usually with a pick-and-roll or going down low. That is not the end of the offense, but the beginning of the other's team nightmare. The defense has to react, because when Diamantidis turns the corner on a...

WATCH CLOSELY: LITERALLY EVERY BASKET COUNTS NOW!

Sun, 18 Feb 2007 10:35:35 GMT

The Top 16 has started: long live the Top 16! You might say there was not too much drama in this first week, but experience teaches that on such a stage, literally every basket counts. You never know if your final fate will depend on point difference, and whether apparently insignificant baskets traded in the last two minutes of a blowout will eventually become the difference between being in the playoffs or not. The three road wins that Dynamo, Olympiacos and Tau earned will also come at a premium in such a short "season." Particularly impressive was Tau's win in Tel Aviv. Nokia Arena is in my opinion the best place to play basketball in Europe, but at the same time the most difficult to win at, despite the fans being simply very passionate and almost never rude at all. Tau won with authority despite having it tough the previous weekend in the Spanish Cup, despite still being without Planinic, a player very difficult to replace given his uniqueness, and despite the absence of head coach Velimir Perasovic, who was hospitalized with heart trouble a day before the game. (Best wishes to Coach Perasovic!) Tau started the game with a key 13-4 run sparked by Igor Rakocevic, who scored 16 points in a torrid first quarter and then bided his time until hitting the final dagger, a three in the last two minutes of the game. Perasovic's absence surely played a little role psychologically. It's not the first time players are very motivated by paying a homage to the head coach who cannot be on the bench while trying to make an assistant - usually well-liked by everybody, as in Ignacio Lezcano's case - happy. Now, don't ask me how you can go from a 30-point first quarter to an eight-point, sputtering second quarter like Tau did. Also, don't ask me how you can be as good a passer as Vujcic is (2 assists shy of another triple double!) or how Will Bynum, very impressive in the early stages of the season, can turn himself into a -1 player in terms of ranking. The two teams shot a combined 25 for 44 on "free" throws, less than 57%. Lior Eliyahu was fantastic: I really think he's gonna be a star, but he would have been completely unstoppable had he gone better than 3 for 8 from the charity stripe. Same goes for Kaya Peker, who shot the same on foul shots. Considering the level that scouting has reached nowadays, a bad free throw shooter will always be exposed in the fourth quarter, and his overall offensive efficiency will be hampered big-time. Tau shot 12-for-25 from three-point distance (48 percent) and 54 percent on freebies, which apparently doesn't make any sense. In a close game, this apparently easy chore, making free throws, makes a whole lot of difference, as Aris - who shot 11-for-20, or 55 %, vs. Dynamo Moscow, who converted 27 out of 33 shots, or 82 % - could very well tell you.

Maccabi's defeat puts an added importance on its game in Rome next week. If Lottomatica can hold serve again on its homecourt after convincingly beating Pau, going 2-0 to start the Top 16 would be a great boost for a team that was out of the Top 16 until Pepe Sanchez of Unicaja hit his miracle shot against Partizan in Belgrade. Both Maccabi and Lottomatica have had their highs and lows throughout this season, one that started with high expectations. The two coaches, originating from the same country, Croatia,...