Regular Season, Week 5 qualification possibilities
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 Six more teams can join the seven that have already qualified for the Eurocup Last 16 in the Week 5 games that tip off across the continent on January 6. The situation in the different groups guarantees excitement in each of the last two weeks of the regular season with several groups that will be decided in week 5 and many more that will go to the wire in Week 6. Only two groups so far have both spots decided and only one of those has first place locked up. On the other hand, Group E features four teams tied at 2-2 and nothing can be decided there until Week 6, but with the possibility of a four-way tie at the end of the regular season, every point counts. Group D is the only one where two teams could potentially advance in Week 5. But we won’t know more until 16 games are played on January 6.
GROUP A
Group A is one of the most balanced in the 2008-09 Eurocup regular season. Zadar (3-1) leads the standings and will advance to the next round if it wins any of its remaining games, either on the road against Maroussi Costa Coffee (2-2) or at home against ASK Riga (2-2). In fact, Zadar will clinch first place if it beats Maroussi and Chorale Roanne (1-3) beats ASK at home. Maroussi will carry on competing for first place with a win against Zadar and its chances will increase if it overcomes its previous 8-point loss against the Croatian powerhouse for tie-break purposes. ASK will be first if it wins its remaining two games at Chorale and against Zadar, as it would have the tie-break advantage against Maroussi and Zadar. Roanne must win both games and wait for other results in order to advance.
GROUP B
Group B already has a champion, Unics Kazan (4-0), which is one of the five undefeated teams in the competition. Unics is already waiting to know its opponents in the Last 16, but will play a crucial role in the outcome of this group. Dynamo Moscow (2-2), Lukoil Academic (1-3) and Barons/LMT (1-3) fight for the remaining spot. Obviously, Dynamo has the advantage not only because of its extra win, but also because it already beat its direct opponents. In fact, Dynamo will advance and seal the outcome of this group in Week 5 if it beats Barons and Lukoil loses in Kazan. Barons has the tie-break advantage against Lukoil (1-1, +9), but its 19-point home loss against Dynamo may be the key factor in this group.
GROUP C
The fight to reach the Last 16 in Group C is already closed, as Benetton Basket Tamoil (4-0) and Khimki (3-1) already advanced to the next round. Both teams will face off again in the regular season finals with first place likely at stake. Benetton registered an 18-point win against Khimki in Treviso. Benetton will be first next week if it beats Besiktas Cola Turka (1-3) and STB Le Havre (0-4) upsets Khimki at home. If both teams win in Week 5 – or if Benetton loses – the big showdown for first place will take place in Khimki. Le Havre and Besiktas are out of chances to reach the next round but both teams will look for prestigious wins that may change the outcome of this group.
GROUP D
Group D has two major candidates to reach the next round, Turk Telekom (3-1) and Aris BSA (3-1). Both teams will reach the Last 16 with one more win, but Turk Telekom has the tie-break advantage against Aris (1-1, +9), in what could be the key factor for first place. Either Aris or Turk Telekom will finish first if it wins both remaining games and its direct opponent loses at least once. Panellinios (1-3) and Bnei Eshet Tours Hasharon (1-3) need to win both games against Aris and Turk Telekom, get the tie-break advantage and wait for one of those teams to lose again. Panellinios has a better tiebreak situation (-2 vs. Aris, -6 vs. Turk Telekom) than Bnei Hasharon (-13 vs. Aris, -18 vs. Turk Telekom).
GROUP E
Everything is up for grabs in Group E, with all four teams - Kalise Gran Canaria, Lietuvos Rytas, Azovmash Mariupol and Asvel Basket - tied at 2-2. It comes as no surprise to say that Week 5 will be pivotal and those teams winning in this round will have the best chance to reach the Last 16. Gran Canaria hosts Azovmash while Asvel welcomes L. Rytas. In the eventuality that all teams end up tied at 3-3, global average will be considered. No team from this group can reach the Last 16 in Week 5. Stay tuned for a big battle to survive the regular season!
GROUP F
The outcome in Group F is already clear, as Spirou Basket (4-0) and Red Star (3-1) are mathematically qualified for the Last 16. Those teams face off in Belgrade in Week 5, with several possible scenarios. If Spirou wins, it clinches first place. If Red Star wins by more than 6 points, it climbs to first place and will win Group F if it downs Brose Baskets (0-4) in Week 6. If Red Star wins by less than 6 points, Spirou stays first but it will need to beat PGE Turow (1-3) in Charleroi in Week 6 to become the group champion. Brose and Turow - a Final Eight team last season - will fight for big wins to finish the Eurocup season with a smile, especially in Week 6, in which any upset could be critical for the final outcome in this group.
GROUP G
Pamesa Valencia (4-0) is the only qualified team in Group G. The original ULEB Cup champion will clinch first place with another win or if Fortitudo Bologna (2-2) loses any of its remaining games. Fortitudo, BC FMP (1-3) and the Artland Dragons (1-3) fight for second place in this group. The pivotal game in Week 5 will be Fortitudo vs. Artland Dragons. Fortitudo will advance to the Last 16 if it beat the Dragons. If both Fortitudo and FMP win in Week 5, a do-or-die showdown for first place will take place in Valencia, but the Italian side will need a 7-point win to become the Group F champion. If Artland beats Fortitudo, however, the Dragons would advance with a win against FMP in Week 6.
GROUP H
The situation in Group H is almost identical to Group G, as iurbentia Bilbao Basket (4-0) is already qualified and is close to clinching first place, as second-ranked Hemofarm Stada (2-2) is two wins behind. In fact, Hemofarm hosts Bilbao in Week 5, in what promises to be a pivotal game. Bilbao wins Group H with a win or if it loses by less than 11 points. If Hemofarm beats Bilbao by more than 12, the Spanish side will need to down Buducnost m:tel (1-3) at home to grab first place. Meanwhile, CEZ Nymburk (1-3) hosts Buducnost in a do-or-die game. If Hemofarm wins against Bilbao, the loser will run of out of chances to advance. If Hemofarm and Nymburk win, both teams will fight for a direct spot in the game in the Czech Republic. If Hemofarm and Buducnost win, the Montenegrin champ needs to beat Bilbao on the road and to wait for some help from Nymburk. If Hemofarm loses, anything can happen.
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Monday, December 29, 2008
Eurocupbasketball.com
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